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SENIOR Russian space scientist, Habibullo Abdussamatov,
suggests that because the Martian polar caps appear to be melting,
then Earth and Mars must both be warming from some common natural
cause.
This idea has produced predictable reactions.
"His views are completely at odds with mainstream scientific
opinion,'' says Colin Wilson, a leading planetary physicist at
Oxford.
Setting aside the question of whether or not Mr
Abdussamatov's hypothesis is correct (I can think of no way to
test it,) it does seem that Mr Wilson's argument is very weak.
How many times in history has "mainstream
scientific opinion'' turned out to be wrong? If the judgement of
experts had been accurate, then the Earth would be flat, the
Atlantic would be infinite and unnavigable, the stars would be
equidistant from us; and radio communication, photography, nuclear
energy, motor cars, aviation and space travel would all be
impossible.
These misguided scientific beliefs, born of
arrogance and lack of imagination, should not of course be
confused with actual discoveries. We know, for instance,
that the universe is expanding, that hydrogen is the lightest
element, that perpetual motion is impossible, that the quantity of
prime numbers is infinite, and that the one-time pad cipher is
unbreakable. These are facts that only an idiot would deny.
But when it comes to beliefs as opposed to
knowledge, scientists are just as likely to be talking nonsense as
the rest of us. Few people now remember a notorious book of the
1920s, 100 Scientists against Einstein. If only one of
these essayists had been right, the theory of relativity would
have collapsed.
One case in which scientists persistently
talked rubbish was that of Alfred Wegener. In 1912 Wegener had
proposed his theory of continental drift–now generally known and
accepted as plate tectonics - in which the continents are
continuously moving. Far back in geologic time, there was one
giant continent that he called Pangaea , meaning "all lands'' in
Greek, and a single ocean known as Thalassa, or "sea.''
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Not only did the eastern bulge of South
America seem as if it had once fitted into the western bulge of
Africa; the two regions were found to have many fossils in common.
The geologists would have none of it. Until
long after Wegener's death in 1930, his theory was vilified.
"Preposterous'', "antiquated'', "a serious error'',
"footloose'', and "dangerous'' were typical responses from
academic experts who had not bothered to read his work. One
critic, Philip Lake, declared typically: "Wegener is not seeking
truth; he is advocating a cause, and is blind to every fact and
argument that tells against him.''
Behind this abuse was professional jealousy and
the fear of loss of prestige. Wegener had no formal training as a
geologist, yet he dared to put forward a geological theory! What
an outrageous invasion of other peoples' back yards!
Yet he was right and they were wrong. Beware of
trusting experts, even when they claim to represent "mainstream
scientific opinion.'' Main streams can too frequently lead to
treacherous cataracts. We ask our experts for knowledge, and too
often they respond with dogmatic ignorance uttered with an air of
spurious authority. Even Einstein talked nonsense about the
quantum theory.
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