Adrian Berry  
Science author and columnist   
Home | About Adrian | Subjects | Contact Me | Reviews | Links 
 

Calculating catastrophes

From asteroid impacts to relativistic bombs

Agolf ball falls on the green with a soft thud. It leaves no impact mark, having fallen at no more than 20 mph. At the opposite extreme, a somewhat heavier missile from deep space strikes the Earth at more than 90 percent of the speed of light. It completely obliterates all life on the planet.

Between these two cases, there is a huge range of possible kinetic impacts, depending on the weight of the colliding object and its speed when it hits the ground or the oceans.

A remarkable computer program, to be found at www.lpl.arizona.edu/impacteffects, calculates the effects of the impacts of asteroids or fragments of them striking the Earth according to their weight and speed.


And to make it personal, it invites the user to say how far he or she is from the point of impact in order to reveal the probable injuries to their bodies, clothes, house and neighbourhood. And so, to start things rolling, I dropped a three mile-wide iron asteroid on Edinburgh at 160,000 mph.

Edinburgh didn't do so well. It suffered an explosion equivalent to 300 million megatons of TNT. A fireball 120 miles across rose over the city. There was an impact crater 107 miles wide and more three quarters of a mile deep. Eighteen hundred cubic miles of soil and rock were vaporised. There was an earthquake of 10.3 on the Richter scale, greater than any in recorded history.

In London 300 miles away, where I had placed myself, the effects were less severe. Windows shattered. The city was covered by ejected debris 16 feet thick. All but the best-designed buildings partially collapsed. Peoples' clothing, grass, and deciduous trees caught fire. Walls, factory chimneys, and monuments collapsed.

So much for accident, but what of malice? Charles Pellegrino and George Zebrowski, in their 1995 novel The Killing Star, suggested that humanity might be deliberately destroyed by a horrible weapon called a ``relativistic bomb.''

Their reasoning was unpleasantly simple. No other intelligent civilisations have been found in space, a mysterious absence that has been called the Great Silence. So where is everyone? The explanation might be that they are hiding themselves for fear of one among them, a violently paranoid civilisation, intolerant of the existence of any other save its own.

These murderous creatures, like the fastest gunmen in the Wild West, would assume that all other inhabitants of the Galaxy would behave as ruthlessly as themselves if only they became sufficiently powerful.

They would therefore wish to destroy any possible rivals as soon as they emerged. Their most probable weapon would be a relativistic bomb, a projectile that strikes its target planet at close to the speed of light. At this velocity, the kinetic energy released would be so frightful that no life whatever would survive. Of all human artifacts, perhaps only the Pyramids would be left standing.

Unfortunately, while we slowly build up data on all the rocks in the Solar System that might strike us at tens of thousands of miles per hour and do us partial damage, there is no way whatever to assess the chances of one that might hit us hundreds of millions of miles per hour.

Home | About Adrian | Subjects | Contact Me | Reviews | Links